Adult social care vacancy rate fell last year, data suggests

Staff vacancy numbers in adult social care services fell last year, early data suggests.

As of December 2024, 7% of roles in independent sector adult social care providers in England lay vacant, down from 7.6% in April 2024, according to the Skills for Care (SfC’s) figures.

The data only covers those providers that have submitted figures to SfC’s adult social care workforce data set (ASC-WDS) for the relevant time period so is not representative of the sector as a whole.

SfC’s last sector-wide assessment measured the independent sector vacancy rate at 8.1% as of March 2024, down from 9.9% in 2023 and 10.7% in 2022.

Rapid fall in level of overseas recruitment

These falls were largely driven by the recruitment of staff from abroad. However, levels of international recruitment have fallen since March 2024, when the government banned adult social care staff on new or extended health and care visas from bringing partners or children to the UK.

According to SfC’s estimates, independent providers recruited 18,000 international staff from April to September 2024, compared with 105,000 in the year to March 2024, a fall of roughly two-thirds in the quarterly average.

Nevertheless, SfC data showed that the number of filled posts in independent providers rose from 575,000 to 585,000 from April to December 2024, alongside the apparent fall in vacancies.

Possible contributors to the trends include the 9.8% rise in the national living wage (NLW), from £10.42 to £11.44 an hour, in April 2024, which will have driven up pay across hundreds of thousands of care worker roles.

Concerns over potential care and job cuts

The NLW is due to rise again in April, by 6.7%, to £12.21 an hour. However, there is widespread sector concern that the measure, in combination with the planned increase in employer national insurance contributions, will lead to cuts to both levels of care and employment.

Almost two-thirds (64%) of organisations said they would need to make staff redundant, while 57% said they would have to hand care contracts back to councils and NHS commissioners on the back of the measures, according to a survey carried out last November by the Care Provider Alliance.

Think-tank the Nuffield Trust has estimated that the measures will cost providers in England £2.8bn in 2025-26, £2bn of which would need to be met by local authorities. Separately, the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services (ADASS) has calculated that councils face £1.8bn in increased costs in adult social care in 2025-26 due to the two measures, and wider inflation.

The government has said that it is making available an extra £3.7bn for local authorities with adult social care responsibilities in 2025-26. However, only about £1.2bn of this is dedicated funding for the sector.