Care population falls for first time in 16 years but remains at historically high levels

The care population in England has fallen for the first time in 16 years but remains at historically high levels, Department for Education (DfE) data has shown.

The number of looked-after children in England fell by 0.5%, from 83,760 to 83,630, in the year to March 2024, the first reduction in the care population since 2008.

However, the total is 5,500 more than was the case in 2019, when councils were looking after 78,140 children, while the DfE figures also showed growth in the number of those placed out of area.

Fall in number of unaccompanied children entering system

The rises in the care population in 2021-22 and 2022-23 were driven by increasing numbers of unaccompanied asylum-seeking children  entering the country.

The DfE estimated that the number of unaccompanied children joining the care system fell from 6,180 in 2022-23 to 5,300 in 2023-24. It calculated that, overall, 31,090 children joined the care system in 2023-24, down 3.1% from the 32,060 who joined in 2022-23.

The department calculated that 31,490 children left care during 2023-24, up 3% on the year before, with the average duration of time spent in the care system among leavers declining from a peak of 907 days in 2020-21 to 864 in 2023-24.

The numbers of children leaving care through adoption in 2023-24 (2,980) was similar  to 2022-23 (3,000), with the same number leaving the system on special guardianship orders in each year (3,860).

Decline in mainstream fostering

The data reinforced the decline in mainstream foster care evidenced by separate statistics released last week by Ofsted.

Barely half (51.2%) of children were in these placements as of March 2024, down from 58% in 2019, with their number falling from 45,310 to 42,730 over the past five years, despite the overall growth in the care population during this time.

Over the same period, the share in kinship foster placements grew from 13.4% to 16%, growing from 10,450 to 13,660 from 2019-24.

Growing numbers in children’s homes

In line with the sharp rise in the number of registered children’s homes in England over the past few years, more children are being placed in these settings.

As of March 2024, 8,640 young people were in children’s homes – the vast majority in open settings – up from 7,990 in 2023 and 7,100 in 2020, and accounting for 10% of the care population.

This year’s figures are the first since the government required organisations providing formerly unregulated independent and semi-independent placements to register with Ofsted as supported accommodation providers to be able to continue supporting looked-after children aged 16-17.

Supported accommodation data incomplete

This followed mounting concerns about the quality of unregulated care and its growing use, with the proportion of looked-after children in these placements rising from 8% (6,070) to 10% (8,650) in the two years to March 2023.

The DfE recorded 6,250 young people – 7% of the care population – as being in supported accommodation as of March 2024. However, this figure only covered the subset of providers that registered with Ofsted by the deadline of 27 October 2023, meaning the figures are incomplete.

Placements delivered by providers that did not register in time were classified as “other placements”, the number of which grew from 1% (1,150) to 5% (3,790) of the care population in 2023-24 as a result.

Growing proportion of out-of-area placements

The proportion of children placed out of area has grown steadily in recent years, from 41% in 2020 to 45% (37,520) in 2024. Over the same period, the share placed more than 20 miles from home has grown from 20% to 22%, with half of this group being children placed for adoption.

There has been little change in the level of placement stability in recent years, with 10% of children having three or more placements in 2023-24, compared with 11% in each of 2022-23 and 2019-20.

Levels of offending were consistent year on year, with 2% of looked-after children aged over 10 being convicted of an offence or subject to youth cautions or youth conditional cautions during 2023-24, the same rate as in 2022-23.

The same was true for levels of substance misuse, with 3% of children identified as having a problem with this in 2023-24, the same proportion as 2019-20.

Increasing concern about wellbeing

There was a small increase in concern about children’s wellbeing, based on responses to the strengths and difficulties questionnaire from the majority of looked-after children aged 5-16.

Forty one per cent of them had scores that were a cause for concern, up from 40% in 2022-23.

Among care leavers, the proportion of 19- to 21-year-olds who were not in education, employment and training rose from 38% to 39% in 2023-24.

‘A system in desperate need of reform’

The figures come with government children’s reforms – initiated by the Conservatives and inherited by Labour – focused on enhancing family support in order to reduce the number of children going into care.

However, charities have criticised perceived delays in implementing the reforms on the grounds that this would prolong a “crisis” in children’s social care.

This message was echoed by the County Councils Network, which warned that local authorities were “having to operate in a false economy of increasingly paying astronomical sums for placements and less on preventative services”.

Its children’s services spokesperson, Roger Gough, said the figures revealed “a system in desperate need for reform” and that change needed to come “urgently”.